In 2002, India’s government launched a ubiquitous international tourism campaign known as “Incredible India.” Were it to launch a similar campaign today, it might as well be called “Inevitable India.” Not just enthusiasts within the country, but a chorus of global analysts, have declared India as the next great economic power: Goldman Sachs has predicted it will become the world’s second-largest economy by 2075, and the FT’s Martin Wolf suggests that by 2050, its purchasing power will be 30% larger than that of the U.S.
Is India the World’s Next Great Economic Power?
Is India’s economic rise inevitable? There’s good reason to think that this latest round of Indo-optimism might be different than previous iterations, but the country still has major challenges to address to make good on this promise. In terms of drivers, demand — in the form of a consumer boom, context appropriate innovation, and a green transition — and supply — in the form of a demographic dividend, access to finance, and major infrastructure upgrades — are helping to push the country forward. This is facilitated by policy reforms, geopolitical positioning, and a diaspora dividend. Even so, the country faces barriers to success, including unbalanced growth, unrealized demographic potential, and unrealized ease-of-business and innovation potential.