The European Union has experienced a series of disasters over the last 10 years, each one of which has posed a major threat to its stability. First, there was the fallout from the 2008-9 financial crisis and the arguably ill-judged imposition of austerity on the Union’s southern members. Combined with the migration crisis, this encouraged the rise of populist anti-EU movements. And then, there was the British vote to leave the EU altogether.
altmodern/Getty Images
Summary.
If the European Union is to survive future crises it will require stronger political leadership than Germany currently provides. This could come from an alliance centered on Germany – either a revival of the partnership with France, possibly extended to include Poland, or some grouping of northern European states. The window of opportunity for creating such a coalition is narrow. But if these countries’ current leaders do not take the opportunity to weld Europe more closely together, then the next big crisis may well signal the beginning of the end to the nearly 70-year-old project that has kept the peace in Western Europe, fostered its democracies, and helped to deliver growth and prosperity by keeping European countries’ economies and societies open to each other.