For generations, pollsters have used probability polling (think of the Gallup polls quoted on the nightly news) as their go-to method to forecast the outcomes of elections. But cost increases and concerns about accuracy have called the method into question. A new form of polling called non-probability sampling — opt-in surveys on the internet, prediction markets, and even polls on gaming systems — has emerged as an improvement, and a viable replacement.
Xbox Polling and the Future of Election Prediction
It’s easier, cheaper, and just as accurate.
September 30, 2014
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